Mutua Madrid Open - Preview

Hi loves,

Ahead of the start of the first joint Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 event of the clay court season, let’s take a look at the players at the forefront of the game and where they find themselves in the draws this week.

ATP Masters 1000

23-4 May 2025

Defending Champion: Andrey Rublev

A great run in Barcelona carried on a good few weeks for Carlos Alcaraz. Despite losing out in straight sets to a seriously on point Holger Rune in the final, Alcaraz goes into Madrid in-form and full of confidence. A potential quarter-final against Lorenzo Musetti would be a repeat of the Monte-Carlo final, and with Musetti sitting out last week’s tournaments with an injury he seemed to pick up in that final hopefully he is now well rested, fit and has that rematch with Carlos in his sights. The Spaniard also gets himself a bye through the first round, of course, so he gets that little bit of extra rest and is not scheduled to start his run until Friday or Saturday  - and he may well need it because he seemed a little worn out, and possibly feeling something in his leg in the Barcelona final, potential injury TBC. (Please note, my intention is not to dim Rune's shine after his win because he did perform well in the Barcelona final - I do however think it is more likely for Carlos to go deep in Madrid rather than Rune).

To say Novak Djokovic is a bit of an unknown quantity in 2025 would be a rather large understatement, having some good weeks and some really really poor weeks. Monte-Carlo, Indian Wells and Doha all resulted in first match exits, but he did then reach the final in Miami. So where does this leave Djokovic going into the first of three big clay court tournaments on the bounce? Honestly, I have no idea. I can't help but think that if these tournaments weren’t mandatory then he wouldn’t be playing. For the last few years Novak has only really focused on the grand slams, and then Olympics last year obviously. He has won everything what feels like ten-times over. So now these 1000 tournaments are mandatory, it does raise the question: Is the motivation still there to get that 100th tour title? Is there even any motivation at all? 

Moving on to Zverev, who got his first title of the year at the BMW Open in Munich last week beating Ben Shelton in the final. He has been waiting for his big moment this season for a while now and to do it in his home country must have been a nice feeling for him (aside from getting heckled about those allegations). Looking ahead to Madrid though and his final tournament as top seed before Sinner returns, a possible third round match up with Davidovich Fokina is an interesting prospect. The long-haired Spaniard has won more matches in 2025 (20) already than he did in the entirety of 2024 (18), and has been doing well on the clay reaching the semi-finals in Monte-Carlo and the quarters last week in Barcelona. Zverev will need to make it past a Spanish player in the second round in order to reach that match - either Jaume Munar or Roberto Bautista Agut stand in his way - so he will be aiming to break Spanish hearts in the capital city.

Alexander Zverev with his trophy in Munich 2025

WTA 1000

22-4 May 2025

Defending Champion: Iga Swiatek

I feel like I am going to be constantly mentioning how much of a threat Iga is on clay and how she is, most likely, the favorite for every tournament on the dirt. But you are going to have to suck it up because I simply cannot talk about Madrid specifically without mentioning that final from last year. The Madrid 2024 final was epic, arguably the match of the year (although I’m sure Donna Vekic and Jasmine Paolini would have something to say about that after their Wimbledon semi-final epic). The full match is on Youtube (you’re welcome) and it is a match which really emphasises just how good Iga is on clay. Despite being defending champion, her draw is by no means easy. The WTA projected run to the final for Swiatek; Eala > Noskova > Ostapenko > Keys > Gauff > Sabalenka are the most likely players in her path. Could get interesting…

Jelena Ostapenko has something to say about Swiatek being the favourite though, as she stands as a potential forth round opponent for her. The Latvian has a 6-0 head-to-head against the Pole after their match last week in Stuttgart. That match along with their other in Doha in February makes it two-for-two this year for Ostapenko - and my word it is fun to see. Now, that’s not me routing for Swiatek to lose, but when she is so dominant on tour and is 'bageling' players left, right and centre and then losing to someone like Ostapenko, who almost feels as if she does nothing on the singles court until Iga is on the other side of the net, it just makes it a really fun prospect.

Jelena Ostapenko playing in Stuttgart 2025

Coco Gauff has had an intriguing start to the 2025 season, but I for one am hoping she will get out of her slump and find her feet on the clay. However saying that , and I am sorry to bring the mood down, that could prove difficult considering the draw she has been given. Her section of the draw contains players who are moving up the rankings steadily and pose a threat. Belinda Bencic (ranked 42), Clara Tauson (ranked 23) and Leylah Fernandez (ranked 25) are all potential round of 16 opponents. Bencic and Gauff have played twice this year, both winning one a piece and both matches going the distance. I personally would like to see them meet on clay, with their aggressive baseline games a match-up on clay could be a match made in heaven for some long, high quality rallies. Who wouldn’t want to see that?

Racket Report picks for the title:

ATP - Carlos Alcaraz

WTA - Aryna Sabalenka

So that’s a snapshot of some things to look out for in Madrid. A final round up of last weeks winners and runners up:

Barcelona (ATP500)

Winner: Holger Rune (6)

Runner Up: Carlos Alcaraz (1)

Munich (ATP500)

Winner: Alexander Zverev (1)

Runner Up: Ben Shelton(2)

Stuttgart (WTA500)

Winner: Jelena Ostapenko

Runner Up: Aryna Sabalenka (1)

Rouen (WTA250)

Winner: Elina Svitolina (1)

Runner Up: Olga Danilovic (3)

With Rome, another joint 1000 event coming up next, this is the start of a hardcore few weeks for all players. Defending points is crucial, and with Jannik Sinner back from his suspension in Rome, the ATP players better get themselves into good form - because I doubt it will take Sinner too long to find his top form again.

Until next time, keep serving!

E x