US Open 2025 - Preview

Hi loves,

We are just a few days away from the start of the US Open 2025, the final grand slam of the season. With it being the final major of the season, things can sometimes feel a bit predictable going into it - but not this year. Let’s look at what I see as the main talking points and big stories now the draw has taken place - it's time for my US Open 2025 Preview.

Mixed Doubles Mini Review

Before we look at the singles draw, a quick word on the Mixed Doubles event which took place this week. I put all my thoughts and feelings on paper before the event in my post linked here:

US Open Mixed Doubles Revamp: How Does It Work?

I was very clear in the fact I felt this event was more of an exhibition than an ‘official grand slam event’ (as the US Open loved to keep reminding us in all it's marketing for the event. Honestly, if you have to keep saying it is an official event, it is probably because people aren't taking it seriously), but I have to say I was pleasantly surprised. Don’t get wrong, it still felt like an exhibition to me, but it was far more enjoyable than I was expecting. Overall, I think it was a huge success. Do I want it to become a staple across all slams? No. But would I be against it being a feature at the US Open in 2026? Absolutely not - bring it back next year I say. In a place like New York where it is loud and the crowd get involved I think it works well. Somewhere like Wimbledon, however, would not fit this format at all. The cherry on top has to be the fact it was won by the only doubles specialist pairing in the draw, and the defending champions, Sara Errani and Andrea Vavassori. In her acceptance speech, Errani stated “this is for all the doubles players who couldn't play this tournament” and she was absolutely spot on. The pressure on their shoulders to prove doubles is not a format players can master overnight was huge, but you know what they say - pressure makes diamonds. Forza! Sara and Andrea, take a bow. You are diamonds.

Errani and Vavassori celebrating winning the US Open Mixed Doubles 2025

Men’s Draw

We have to start with the men’s draw. I feel like the only thing people are talking about in the tennis world nowadays is Sinner vs Alcaraz, their rivalry and who will come out on top. It can get tiresome, but alas here I am about to do exactly the same thing. We have to, don’t we? No matter how hard I try I cannot look past Sinner for the title. He is just too consistent and locked in, and even with his recent illness in Cincinnati, he seems the stronger of the two and of anyone else on the tour really. His draw convinces me of this even more (well, frankly, he could be facing seeds 2 to 8 in his 7 matches and I would back him to win the title). Sinner’s draw gives me no reason for concern, by seeding it could be: Kopriva, Popyrin, Shapavalov, Paul and then Draper up to the quarter final stage. Nothing too intimidating if you ask me. Alcaraz has been doing brilliantly recently, picking up the title in Cincinnati, albeit by retirement, and he seems to be really enjoying his tennis which we love to see. He also has next-to-no points to defend (just 50), having been knocked out in round 2 last year. The pressure is off, so can he pull it off and end his slam season on a high? Will Alcaraz make the slam count for 2025 2-2 for him and Sinner or will Sinner make it 3-1? Alcaraz has a tricky opener against Rielly Opelka, and if he can get through that unscathed, it is potentially Mattia Bellucci, Luciano Darderi, Daniil Medvedev waiting before a blockbuster quarter-final against Ben Shelton; can I get a yes please? Everyone, I implore you, cross your fingers and toes and pray that they both get there. This match up is always fun. Another Alcaraz/Sinner final for the third slam in a row? Highly probable if you ask me.

Carlos Alcaraz winning the Cincinnati Open 2025

Pretty bold of me to exclude everyone else completely from having a chance of winning the title, but there are a couple of other players who I think we should watch. One of those is Jack Draper, who has had a little break from the sport, not playing a tournament since Wimbledon as he was nursing a little injury. He came back to partner Jess Pegula in the mixed doubles this week and he looked seriously sharp. The time off has certainly done him good, he looks refreshed and ready to go - with a new sponsor to go with it. Draper has partnered with Vuori in a multi-year deal, which is said to be "transformative". First impressions are positive - love the style and fit of the kit, so I am keen to see where it goes from this first launch. I will definitely have my eye on Jack to put a shift in in New York, he does have plenty of points to defend so I hope he doesn’t put too much pressure on himself, and his draw will be crucial. A couple of easier rounds will do him wonders to settle back into a match environment. The first seed he is projected to face is big serving Canadian Gabriel Diallo (31 seed), which surely won’t be easy, but it is a pretty nice seed to be facing in the grand scheme of things if they both get that far. His projected quarter final would be a repeat of last year’s semi-final against Jannik Sinner. This is definitely a match up I would like to see although, as per my previous comments, I would see Sinner coming through that match in 4 sets.

Women’s Draw

The women’s draw is much more open than the men’s - as usual. We have three main players, Swiatek, Sabalenka and Gauff, with a few side characters putting their hat in the ring. I think we have to start with Iga Swiatek. Champion at Wimbledon and in Cincinnati, she has found her form this last couple of months. A strange first half of the year now looks to have been a bit of a transitional period for Iga; new coach, small changes and a huge amount of pressure could have just been the worst possible combination for her, especially on the clay where expectations were so high. I do hope she is truly back in the game, because her match-ups with the other top players are intriguing. I am predicting at least a semi-final run for Swiatek. And now after seeing the draw, I feel exactly the same. No names in her draw are standing out as a problem for me until the semi finals. Coco Gauff or Madison Keys are the two players who have the highest chance of getting there. Iga and Keys have already met in a semi final of a hard court major this year in Melbourne, and Keys won that battle. They also met in Madrid and Keys won a 6-0 set, before losing in three. So if they do play in New York it better be another good one. 

Iga Swiatek won the Cincinnati Open title in 2025

Speaking of Coco Gauff, she has become an interesting prospect in the last few weeks. Her performances have been…shaky, to say the least. A round 1 exit at Wimbledon followed by performances where she has been racking up the double fault count in all of her matches is not what we have been used to since Gauff has hit the big time. Don’t get me wrong, we have definitely seen some unfortunate serving performances from the American, but hitting 18 against Paolini last week in their match in Cincinnati and 23 in Canada before that is a strikingly high number. Somehow, she was able to come through that match in Canada, and has since hired a biomechanics coach to help with the problem. If Coco can sort out her serving, I see her going deep in New York - but that is a big if. I would like to see a more polished Coco out there in New York. The home crowd is bound to help her and it could mean some vibey atmospheres, which we obviously love to see.

A word on Victoria Mboko. What a talent. I mean seriously, this girl is the real deal. She has it all and more, she will be a top 5 player consistently for years to come - mark my words. After her fairytale win in her home tournament in Montreal she has been preparing for her first major as a seeded player. She started the year ranked outside the world's top 300, and here she is now at 24 in the world. It is remarkable, and I hope it continues. She faces injury hit Barbora Krejcikova in round 1. A blockbuster match up, if Babs is fit.

Finally, we have Naomi Osaka. Making her comeback this year has been filled with ups and downs, but there have definitely been many more positives the last couple of months. She has split from her coach Patrick Mouratoglou, and the change in coach has clearly been nothing but beneficial. She was working with Iga Swiatek’s former coach Tomasz Wiktorowski during Montreal on a trial basis and they have made that partnership permanent. I hope that her success in Canada and being back in the world’s top 25 gives her some confidence that she can succeed at a slam she is a two time champion of. Osaka will face Greet Minnen of Belgium in round 1 of the US Open. 

Predictions

I am finding it both very easy and very challenging to decide on my picks for the titles this time around. Jannik Sinner has to be my men's champion pick - I just don’t see anyone being consistent enough to stop him over five sets on a hard court. The only teeny tiny doubt in my mind is whether he has physically recovered from whatever illness was hampering him in Cincinnati. Even then, a routine first few rounds will settle him and he will be back to his normal self I imagine. 

The women’s draw is more challenging. I would be surprised if it was someone who was outside the top 10 - but I do still think it could really be anyone in that top 10. Swiatek, Sabalenka and Gauff are the most likely candidates by a length, but it does seem that there could be a shock early round exit. If there is, my money is on Guaff, who has Tomljanovic in round 1, followed possibly my Donna Vekic. As fun as Wimbledon was with seeds falling left, right and centre, I would like to see some heavyweights going head-to-head at the end stages of the tournament. I am going for Swiatek for the title. 

New York better provide us with some hot matches and storylines worthy of the Broadway stages. The last month has all been leading up to this; and I am so ready.

Until next time, keep serving!

E x