ROLAND GARROS - PRE DRAW PREVIEW

Hi loves,

Before we jump right into Roland Garros, the climax of the clay swing, and everything that has been going through my brain, let’s quickly recap what has happened this clay court season so far.

The main clay court tournament winners this season have been:

Stuttgart	WTA500	Jelena Ostapenko
Rouen	WTA250	Elina Svitolina
Madrid	WTA1000	Aryna Sabalenka
Rome	WTA1000	Jasmine Paolini

Monte-Carlo	Masters1000	Carlos Alcaraz
Barcelona	ATP500	Holger Rune
Munich	ATP500	Alexander Zverev
Madrid	Masters1000	Caspar Ruud
Rome	Masters1000	Carlos Alcaraz

The main story emerging from the clay so far is the downfall (is that going too far?) of Iga Swiatek. I did cover some of this in my last post, so I won't repeat myself too much, but another fairly heavy defeat came at the hands of Danielle Collins in Rome. Even though Collins was due to retire at the end of last year she is still dealing knockout blows to the best of the best, and doing it with fire and sass - just how we like it. Collins is always dangerous on her day, and what I am about to say is not meant to take anything away from her as she absolutely deserved to win that match, but Iga has been really off her game for the last month or so. The problem has realistically been going on longer than that though. What the specific problem is, however, one can only speculate. Could it potentially be linked to the ban she was handed in the off-season for the positive drugs test? Maybe the Olympics threw a spanner in the works with her preparations in the second half of 2024? Feeling the pressure to defend 4000 points from last season in just 6 weeks? I will be keeping an eye out for any hints we may get in the coming weeks. It is worth noting she has not reached the final of a tournament since last year's French Open. A whole year with no finals for a player who has been in the top 2 for the last 160+ weeks is absurd. The big question is whether Swiatek will rediscover her form when she rediscovers her memories in Paris. With Iga in this kind of form it means Roland Garros is WIDE OPEN. And is that not exactly what we want? Bring it on.

What are my thoughts of various players going into the French Open? I am glad you asked.

WTA

Naomi Osaka has been making steady progress this clay court swing, even though in the past she has admitted to not feeling at all comfortable on the surface. Prior to the start of Rome, of her 72 match wins at WTA 1000 events, only 12 had come on clay. However, her fortunes seemed to turn when she dropped down to WTA125 level to play the tournament in Saint-Malo in the week prior to Rome and ended up taking the trophy home. Not bad for someone who said after the win on Instagram; “Kinda ironic to win my first trophy back on the surface that I thought was my worst”. I give credit to any top player who decides to step down a level to get some experience or matches under their belt - it is a smart move, and it paid off this time. Until her loss to Peyton Stearns in the round of 16, she had won 8 straight clay-court matches at all levels, which isn’t half bad if you ask me. Osaka dug deep in her prior Rome matches to reach that match against Stearns, especially when she looked down-and-out against Golubic in the previous round but ended up coming through in three, winning 6-1 in the third.

I am intrigued by the prospect of Osaka doing things at Roland Garros, I mean she did nearly knock out Swiatek last year (she ended up losing 7-5 in the third). Side note, I remember that match was on a Wednesday early evening, I was going out for dinner for my sister’s birthday and I couldn’t stop checking the score which very much irritated my family…they just don’t get it! Draw dependent, I am marking Osaka as one to watch. She has experience in big moments and has picked up some form on clay in recent weeks.

A shaky start in Madrid made me worry for Mirra Andreeva, she was showing some of the childishness we saw when she was starting out her professional career - remember that match at Wimbledon against Madison Keys? Yeah…that’s the vibe we’re talking about here. I am honestly astounded she didn’t get a warning for racket abuse in her straight sets victory against Maria Bouzkova in the Spanish capital. But who am I to judge? You can talk about the drama and aggro all you like - and trust me I will absolutely be doing that - but her performances on the court do speak for themselves. She has had a remarkable year, especially on the hard courts, and reached the quarter finals in Madrid and Rome this year. She has been playing a lot of tennis this year, going deep in both singles and doubles with her partner Diana Schnaider (what a fun partnership!). I would absolutely tell you to keep an eye on her during the French Open. She reached the semi-finals last year, winning that epic match against Aryna Sabalenka in the quarters (6-7 6-4 6-4). After a couple of solid performances in Madrid and Rome she goes into the French in good form, and another year older and wiser when it comes to dealing with big moments. Winning two WTA1000 events this year can’t hurt, can it?

Jasmine Paolini hasn’t quite had a 2025 like her 2024 season so far this year. By no means a bad start to the year, but nothing as spectacular as last year. However, I am sure if you asked the Italian to choose between an amazing season but losing round one in Rome, or an average start to the year and winning the Rome title she would choose the latter. Rome has some of the most loyal fans in the world and all of the success Italians have been having in the last couple of years on the tour brings a level of expectation - an expectation Paolini lived up to. A top-class performance against Gauff in the final (possibly the most in-form player going into Roland Garros, to be discussed later) and taking home the trophy in the doubles with Sara Errani gives Jasmine a huge amount of confidence going into the French, and there seems to be a good chance of her defending her finalist points, or going one one step further. Gosh it’s a fun prospect isn’t it!

Jasmine Paolini posing with her Rome Champion's Trophy 2025

As I mentioned, Coco Gauff has been a standout performer over the last couple of weeks. Reaching back-to-back finals in Madrid and Rome is no easy feat, and although she did not win either title it shows some real consistency which is arguably equally as important (or maybe more important?) than winning a title in the weeks leading up to a slam. The confidence she has in her game is clear to see, and although her unforced error count and double fault numbers were slightly alarming at times this week, we can't forget that Coco won a grand slam not playing her best tennis - could she do it again? She is a previous finalist at Roland Garros after all...

ATP

Since reaching the final in Barcelona, Alcaraz had a shaky and unpredictable couple of weeks. Pulling out of Madrid at the last minute due to injury and then making his comeback just two weeks later in Rome winning the title gives him a surprisingly, and unexpectedly, good shot at performing well in Paris. Good memories in Paris are bound to help him get over any potential first round nerves, and the love of the crowd will be behind him as well.  I don't have too much to say about Carlos at this stage in all honesty. He is back at world number two and deserves to be there. He absolutely did deserve to win the Rome title, performing beautifully in the second set of that final specifically. We could be returning to business as usual for Alcaraz, but the opening two rounds at Roland Garros will be crucial to see how the injury is holding up after a busy couple of weeks and how he handles the pressure of defending his title (although I personally have no concerns about that).

Carlos Alcaraz playing in Rome 2025

Going into Rome, we were all unsure of what Jannik Sinner we were going to get, and when he emerged on that Saturday evening all in black and looking pretty mysterious it all felt rather cinematic. He was facing Mario Navone, a good clay court player who loves an occasion like this. It was by no means the Italians’ best performance but he put in a solid shift - making 21 winners to 24 unforced errors and converting 43% of the break points. He was not as clinical as we are used to seeing, but give him a chance - it was his first match in three months after all. After a few matches, he came up against Caspar Ruud, Madrid champion and excellent clay court player. Sinner absolutely obliterated Ruud 6-0 6-1. It was a masterclass and, in the circumstances, potentially one of the greatest performances that will ever grace the Campo Centrale.

Looking ahead to Roland Garros, it will be interesting to see the kind of reception Sinner gets from the French crowd. They are known to be a rather rowdy bunch and if he comes up against a Frenchman it could get a bit hostile. I for one love the drama (as we all know) so do kind of hope he has a challenging atmosphere to try to overcome. There is potential for a Sinner Alcaraz final now the Spaniard is back to world number 2. Although with Carlos potentially carrying a slight injury still and Sinner finding his groove I would be shocked if they both made it to the final for the second tournament in a row. They did play in the semis last year in a five set marathon won by Alcaraz (2-6 6-3 3-6 6-4 6-3) so could they take it one step further and make it a final? I say unlikely, but happy to be proven wrong!

Jannik Sinner playing in Rome 2025

Who would I consider a ‘Dark Horse’?

Peyton Stearns is a player who I have always seen as a bit of a hover-er. She seems to be around and about, but never catches my eye - until Rome. Knocking out back-to-back grand slam champions Madison Keys and Naomi Osaka followed by a hard fought win over Elina Svitolina earned Stearns a place in the history books; she is the first player to win three consecutive WTA main-draw third set tiebreaks. An amazing feat which shows a huge amount of grit, mental strength and, frankly, a bad-ass attitude. Hats off to you, Miss Stearns.

Starting in Rome at 42 in the world, after going on this amazing run her ranking has risen to 28 in the world, ensuring a seeding at a grand slam for the first time at Roland Garros. I don’t think anyone will want to be drawn against her, or even be in her section of the draw at the rate she is going. Now, do I think she is going to win the tournament? No, I don't. Let's bring expectations down slightly. I am not sure she has the stamina or experience to win 7 matches in such a high paced and pressured environment at this stage of her career. BUT she could be a real disruptor and a tough test. Maybe forth round? That is my very loose pre-draw prediction.

Lorenzo Musetti. What a clay court swing he has had. Final in Monte Carlo (lost to Alcaraz), semi-final in Madrid (lost to Draper) and semi-final in Rome (lost to Alcaraz). Honestly, who saw this coming? It was a really poor start to the year for Musetti by his standards. He was making very little noise and going out early in tournaments up until his run in Monte-Carlo.  But something seemed to click that week in Monaco and his flair and beauty came out in full force. He heads into the next couple of weeks full of form and confidence, I wouldn't be surprised by a potential semi-final run. OH and him and his partner are expecting baby number 2, what a lovely bit of news to come out of the tennis world the last couple of days.

Ahead of the draw, what am I hoping for?

Bottomline is I am hoping for entertainment and stories. This is the first year we will not see Rafael Nadal’s name in the draw, and although that is sad, it marks a significant moment in the sport. With Djokovic a complete unknown there really feels as if this is the first grand slam where the changing of the guard feels incredibly prominent. Australia had a different feeling because Novak has won it so many times (10 to be exact), and although we can’t count him out completely in Paris he isn’t even in my top 5 favourites. If he gets a tricky first or second round draw then it could get very nervy. Alcaraz, Sinner, Zverev, or another has the opportunity to shine. And this is the same on the women's side with Swiatek not being in her best form. We are likely to get a new Roland Garros champion on the women's side. How exciting ay!

Once the draw has happened tomorrow, I will be picking out what I see as some of the key matches in round one and looking at the projected quarter finals, semi finals, finalists and my predicted winner. 

Before the draw happens, I have to put on record my predicted winners. So here they are…

Jannik Sinner and Coco Gauff

A world number 1 and world number 2. Bold picks from me I know…let’s see if I change my mind once I have seen the draw.

Until next time, keep serving!

E x